{"id":177,"date":"2026-04-07T04:47:30","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T04:47:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/?p=177"},"modified":"2026-04-07T04:47:31","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T04:47:31","slug":"no-end-in-sight-us-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/no-end-in-sight-us-iran-war\/","title":{"rendered":"No end in sight &#8211; US Iran War"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Global markets in 2026 are being driven less by fundamentals and more by geopolitical stress\u2014specifically the escalating conflict involving the United States and Iran. This has created a distorted but revealing environment across commodities, currencies, and the broader economic system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gold and silver<\/strong> are no longer reacting in a simple \u201crisk-on\/risk-off\u201d manner. Traditionally, war drives precious metals higher, and we did see gold push toward record levels above $5,000 earlier this year . However, the current environment is different. Rising oil prices are feeding inflation expectations, which in turn keeps interest rates elevated\u2014this reduces the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold and silver . Net effect: metals remain structurally bullish, but short-term price action is volatile and sometimes counterintuitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Oil is the real epicenter.<\/strong> The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz\u2014responsible for roughly 20% of global oil flow\u2014has triggered a supply shock . Prices have surged past $110 per barrel and could go significantly higher if disruptions persist . This is not speculative pricing\u2014it\u2019s physical supply destruction. The result is immediate: rising fuel costs, supply chain disruption, and global inflation pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The risk of escalation is real and underpriced.<\/strong> The US-Iran conflict is no longer a contained regional issue. Direct threats to infrastructure, shipping lanes, and energy assets suggest a path toward prolonged war rather than quick resolution . If escalation continues, expect second-order effects: global recession risk, food price spikes, and sustained commodity inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This feeds directly into <strong>the reshaping of the global economy<\/strong>. We are seeing:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Supply chains fragmenting again (post-COVID, now geopolitics-driven)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Energy security becoming the top macro priority<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Countries accelerating moves away from dependency on single trade routes or currencies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>There is also a structural shift underway: central banks, especially outside the West, are diversifying away from the US dollar and increasing gold reserves . That\u2019s not cyclical\u2014that\u2019s strategic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The US dollar\u2019s outlook is mixed but fragile long term.<\/strong> In the short term, it remains strong due to safe-haven demand during crises . But structurally, it faces pressure from:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>De-dollarization trends<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Persistent inflation risks from energy shocks<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Rising geopolitical fragmentation<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bottom line:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Short term \u2192 USD strong, oil volatile, metals choppy<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Long term \u2192 commodities stronger, USD dominance gradually eroding<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This isn\u2019t a normal cycle. It\u2019s a transition phase toward a more fragmented, commodity-driven global economy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Global markets in 2026 are being driven less by fundamentals and more by geopolitical stress\u2014specifically the escalating conflict involving the United States and Iran. This has created a distorted but revealing environment across commodities, currencies, and the broader economic system. Gold and silver are no longer reacting in a simple \u201crisk-on\/risk-off\u201d manner. Traditionally, war drives [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-177","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=177"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":178,"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/177\/revisions\/178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ambullion.org\/amb_wp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}