Gold Forecast – End of 2025
Based on published analyst calls and the LBMA analyst survey, expect the most-likely end-2025 gold range to be roughly $3,100 – $3,900 per ounce, with consensus analyst/bench estimates clustering near ~$3,300–$3,700/oz. This is driven by strong central-bank buying, ETF inflows, and a higher probability of Fed rate cuts versus a year ago. LBMA+2Reuters+2
Reputable published targets
| Source | End-2025 call / comment | Why this matters |
|---|---|---|
| Goldman Sachs (bank research) — raised target | $3,700/oz (range $3,650–$3,950). | Major institutional research that moves markets; cites central-bank buying and ETF demand. |
| UBS (bank research) — raised target | $3,800/oz by end-2025 (public note Sept 2025). | Big global bank — raised target on expected Fed cuts, weaker USD, central-bank demand. |
| JP Morgan (bank research) | Forecasts averaging ~$3,675/oz into late 2025 and toward $4,000 by mid-2026 in some scenarios. | Large research shop — useful for institutional consensus signals. |
| LBMA analyst survey (industry consensus) | Average analyst end-2025 estimate: US$3,324.40/oz (survey mid-2025). | Good cross-section of analyst expectations — a practical consensus indicator. |
| Deutsche Bank (bank research) | Raised 2026 forecast to $4,000/oz; sees upside momentum into 2026. (Bullish signal for end-2025 range). | Signals that major macro houses expect higher prices if conditions persist. |
Note: those are published, date-specific numeric calls. Hedge funds generally don’t publish many precise end-year numbers; they publish positions and commentary instead (examples below).
What reputable hedge funds / legendary managers are saying or doing (directional — not exact numbers)
- Paul Tudor Jones / Tudor Investment Corp — publicly expressed bullish views on gold and holds allocations to GLD and other inflation hedges; he frames gold as an inflation/government-debt hedge rather than giving a precise December-31 price.
- Bridgewater / Ray Dalio (ex-CEO & founder, and Bridgewater commentary) — Bridgewater research and Dalio publicly advocate owning gold (10–15% of a portfolio in Dalio’s view) as protection versus debt/monetary risk; their public material stresses allocation and the macro case rather than an exact price target.
- Stanley Druckenmiller — has publicly recommended owning gold as part of defensive positioning during uncertain markets; again, directional, not a date-fixed price.
- Jeffrey Gundlach / DoubleLine (not a classic hedge fund but big asset manager) — publicly said gold could surpass $4,000/oz in extreme/continued-dollar-weakness scenarios. (Directional and scenario-based).
Bottom line: These hedge funds/legendary managers are bullish or neutral-to-bullish and are increasing allocations to gold, but they rarely hand you a tidy $/oz number for exactly 31 Dec 2025. Use the bank/research numbers above for date-specific guidance; use hedge-fund commentary to judge conviction and potential upside tail-risk.
Underlying factors that will determine gold’s price by end of 2025
Below is a systematic table of the main drivers — what each factor does to price, why it matters, and how to watch it.
| Factor | Directional impact on gold | Why it matters (mechanics) | How to watch / data |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Federal Reserve policy (rates / cuts) | Lower rates → higher gold; Fed cuts expected = bullish. | Gold is non-yielding — lower real rates (nominal rates minus inflation) increase gold’s attractiveness and reduce opportunity cost. Analysts cite expected Fed easing as a primary reason for higher end-2025 targets. | Watch Fed statements, dot-plot, and Fed fund futures for terminal rates. |
| U.S. Dollar strength / weakness | Weaker dollar → higher gold. | Gold is priced in USD; a weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for non-USD buyers and often triggers buying. | USD Index (DXY), FX moves vs EUR/CNY. |
| Central bank purchases | Strongly bullish when sustained. | Central banks (China, others) are steady net buyers — removes supply from market and signals strategic demand. Many bank forecasts raise targets assuming continued buying. | Official central-bank reports, LBMA stats, local central bank disclosures. |
| ETF flows and investor demand | Bullish when inflows rise; outflows bearish. | ETF inflows are a big source of marginal gold demand; they concentrate price moves. Goldman and others cite ETF flows as a driver. | GLD/IAU holdings, net daily ETF flows. |
| Inflation / real yields | Higher inflation or falling real yields → bullish. | Real yields (nominal yields minus inflation) are a key inverse correlate to gold. If inflation stays sticky while rates cut, gold does well. Hedge funds cite inflation/debt concerns as reasons to own gold. | CPI / PCE prints, 10y nominal and TIPS breakevens. |
| Geopolitical risk / safe-haven demand | Bullish in times of crisis. | Wars, sanctions, systemic risk boost safe-haven flows into gold quickly. | Geopolitical headlines, risk-off asset moves, volatility spikes. |
| Supply (mine output & scrap) vs demand (jewellery, industry) | Supply shortages or reduced recycling → bullish. | Physical tightness amplifies price moves. Central bank and investor demand + limited incremental supply = big upward pressure. | Mining production reports, scrap supply estimates, LBMA data. |
| Market positioning / momentum & derivatives (futures, options) | Long speculative positioning → amplifies moves. | Speculators and quant flows can accelerate rallies; unwinds can cause corrections. | CFTC positioning reports, futures open interest, implied vols. |
| Fiscal outlook / sovereign debt concerns | Higher sovereign debt / fiscal stress → bullish. | Loss of confidence in fiat/sovereign balance sheets increases demand for hard assets. Hedge funds often cite debt sustainability as part of the gold case. | Debt issuance calendars, debt/GDP dynamics, funding stress indicators. |
(Short version: Fed policy + dollar + central bank buying + ETF flows + real yields are the biggest, highest-leverage drivers for end-2025 price direction.)
What would push gold much higher or much lower by end of 2025?
- Much higher (>$4,000): rapid Fed easing, sudden USD collapse, surge in central-bank demand, or a geo-political shock. Several analysts/big investors flag $4k as in play in upside scenarios.
- Much lower (<$2,800): Fed remains hawkish, inflation falls faster than expected, a strong USD rally, or a large speculative outflow. Banks note Fed path is the largest single risk to forecasts.
Quick practical takeaways
- If you want a single number to plan against: use the Goldman Sachs $3,700/oz end-2025 or the UBS $3,800/oz (both are public, widely-used reference points). They’re not gospel, but they’re the best publicly-available, date-specific forecasts from major houses.
- Treat hedge-fund commentary as conviction/intensity signals — they tell you hedge funds are positioned for higher gold, but they don’t replace a published numeric forecast.
- Watch Fed guidance, USD, central-bank buying, and ETF flows — those will decide whether forecasts hit the mark.