Gold’s run in 2025 has been fierce and the consensus from big-name macro managers and banks is: higher is likelier than lower — but by how much depends on scenario risk (central-bank buying, tariffs/geopolitics, and whether real yields fall). Below is a summary of geopolitical drivers that keep gold’s fundamentals strong

Base case (most likely): $4,000–$4,600 — With central-bank buying persisting, strong ETF inflows, and markets pricing a December Fed cut (or at least lower real yields), gold should remain elevated and likely finish the year in this band. Major banks and the LBMA/Gold Council data show buyers are still dominant.

Bull case (fast escalation): $4,600–$5,500+ — Triggered by a sharper-than-expected Fed easing, a new major geopolitical shock (wider Middle East conflict or escalation around Taiwan), or accelerated official-sector reserve diversification. HSBC and several macro managers explicitly note $5k+ into 2026 as plausible under this scenario.

Conservative / pullback case: $3,000–$4,000 — If real yields re-normalize quickly, ETF flows reverse, or central-bank buying moderates materially, gold can correct toward this range — Morgan Stanley–style downside remains possible despite the rally.

HOW THE CURRENT GEOPOLITICAL ENVIRONMENT MAPS INTO THOSE SCENARIOS

Middle East tensions (regional conflicts & energy risk): bullish. Spurs safe-haven flows, possible oil shocks → inflation risk → gold appetite rises. Recent coverage ties parts of 2025’s rally to these risks.

US political/fractures (shutdowns, sanctions, tariff rhetoric): supportive. Policy paralysis and tariff talk weaken confidence in the dollar and policy predictability — both lift gold. Reuters and market reports show these factors contributing to rallies and Fed-rate-cut pricing.

Great-power tensions (Taiwan / China signalling): conditional bullish. Any material escalation or sustained deterioration of trade links pushes investors to hard assets and could accelerate central-bank diversification away from USD assets. DB/DB Research flagged flashpoints that can move markets.

Central-bank behavior: structural bullish. 2025 has seen record official purchases and elevated central-bank demand remains the single largest structural support for higher prices. If that continues, it caps downside. Gold Council / demand reports confirm sustained official purchases

Bottom line

At $4,300/oz today, the path to year-end is higher: ongoing central-bank buying, ETF inflows and geopolitical risk make $4k–$4.6k the most probable finish; a sharper shock or faster Fed easing can propel gold toward $5k+, while only a marked reversal of official buying and a sudden rise in real yields would drag it back under $3.5k.